ToolsGroup

MARCH 16, 2021

I have been blogging and advocating for the past 15 years on probabilistic approaches to planning and forecasting, and am happy to see in the last few years it has finally started gaining traction and attention. A symptom of a probabilistic plan or forecast is that its results are generally also expressed as probability distributions.

Forecasting 156

Forecasting Forecasting Software Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Planning 156

The Logistics of Logistics

MAY 1, 2024

Samuel Parker and Joe Lynch discuss DAT iQ: the metrics that matter. Key Takeaways: DAT iQ: The Metrics that Matter In the podcast interview, Samuel Parker gave a freight market overview based on DAT’s database of $150 billion in annual market transactions.

Metrics 214

Metrics Logistics Network Optimization Software Analytics Software Optimal Sourcing 214

Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 29, 2021

Using balance sheet data from 2011 to 2019, we chart companies’ progress by peer group on rate of improvement and performance in the metrics of growth, operating margin, inventory turns, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Let me share some and see what you think: Does forecast ownership make a difference in outcomes?

Supply Chain Planning Software 370

Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Design Software Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Design 370

Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 16, 2023

A shift from functional metrics to a balanced scorecard. I like the use of growth, margin, inventory turns, Return on Invested Capital, customer service and ESG metrics. The focus on functional metrics sub-optimizes balance sheet results. Improved Forecast Value Added (FVA). A Focus on ‘One-Number Forecasting.’

S&OP 333

S&OP Supply and Demand Forecasting Supply Chain Design Software 333

Logility

FEBRUARY 26, 2020

Over my 25+ year supply chain career I have worked for several distribution-intensive companies and every single one of them had a focus on improving forecast accuracy. Achieving a high SKU level forecast accuracy is a top goal for supply chain planning teams regardless of industry, size, location, etc.

Forecasting 162

Forecasting Forecasting Software Optimal Sourcing Supply and Demand 162

ToolsGroup

MARCH 3, 2022

Despite knowing all this, too many retailers ignore the impact of weather and this adds error to plans and demand forecasts. And even though meteorology has come a long way, weather is a notoriously fickle and uncontrollable factor, and no forecaster can reliably predict it beyond the next few weeks. It all evens out in the end.

Forecasting 156

Forecasting Forecasting Software Procurement Analytics Retail 156

ShipBob

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Forecasting projections is one of the toughest things to get right. Whether your brand is experiencing gradual sales or is in high-growth mode , we’ll walk you through some tips to improve your ability to forecast demand. Jump to section: What is demand forecasting? Jump to section: What is demand forecasting? Conclusion.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Forecasting Software Modeling Demand Planning Software 130

Supply Chain Shaman

SEPTEMBER 22, 2024

The organization had little energy to test forecasting models. I then asked about his success with Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis. Companies speak about moving from a functional metric focus to managing corporate metrics, but this does not happen. I asked if he had tested the models by backcasting.

Cost Reduction Strategies 376

Cost Reduction Strategies Waste Reduction Inventory Reduction Supply Chain Planning Software 376

Supply Chain Shaman

MARCH 21, 2024

In my first classes, I taught the group how to speak the language of demand—forecastability, Forecast Value Added (FVA), backcasting, demand and market latency, and market drivers. 40-50% of items are not forecastable at an item/location level. Lack of aligned metrics. Instead, we need to Jump. The So What?

Inventory Reduction 403

Inventory Reduction Supply Chain Planning Software Cost Reduction Strategies Supply Chain Design Software 403

Supply Chain Shaman

JANUARY 2, 2023

A large consumer products manufacturer with nine Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) instances and several divisions wanted to discuss forecasting. The team was not calibrated on the role of forecasting and the basics around process excellence. What Is a Forecast Anyway? A forecast is not a forecast. Bear with me.

Supply and Demand 373

Supply and Demand Modeling Demand Planning Supply Chain Planning Software 373

Supply Chain Shaman

JULY 25, 2021

Implementation of Sales Forecasting. The focus on sales forecasting started shortly after Y2k. Few companies measured the impact on error and bias through the rigor of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis. While the input from sales on market trends is invaluable, sales should never be asked to forecast. The reason?

Procurement Analytics 370

Procurement Analytics Supply Chain Design Software Agile and Lean Supply Chain Supply Chain Planning Software 370

Arkieva

OCTOBER 14, 2020

In this blog, we will illustrate through an example of these potential pitfalls (unanchored, random variation, and narrow metrics) and potential negative impact on a firm. Insight from Applied Statisticians for Forecasting: Is It Worth the Effort and the Mirage of Random Variation was first posted on October 14, 2020 at 8:09 am.

Forecasting 148

Forecasting Metrics Examples Modeling 148

Logility

JUNE 2, 2023

In the intricate world of supply chain management, the accuracy of demand forecasting often serves as the cornerstone of business growth. Yet, despite its significance, demand forecasting continues to be a thorny issue for many businesses, particularly manufacturers. What is Demand Forecasting Accuracy? Let’s get started!

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Modeling Forecasting Software Supply and Demand 130

ToolsGroup

NOVEMBER 15, 2016

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. Unsurprisingly, the highest percentage of respondents in a recent Gartner/Supply Chain Digest survey selected forecast accuracy and demand variability as the top barriers preventing them from reaching their broader supply chain goals.

Forecasting 120

Forecasting Forecasting Software Supply and Demand Modeling 120

GlobalTranz

MARCH 18, 2020

In early 2020, the market forecast for freight looked bright. The post What Are the Most Important 2020 Freight Metrics to Know? The post What Are the Most Important 2020 Freight Metrics to Know? The turmoil of the U.S.-China China trade war appeared at an end, and few disruptions were believed to cause issues in 2020.

Metrics 156

Metrics Freight Forecasting China 156

Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 11, 2023

We speak about the need to move from a functional understanding to a global, holistic capabilities, but the traditional supply chain leader defines bonus incentives and process performance goals based on functional metrics. I often laugh when companies ask me to define a good forecast. Measurement.

Supply Chain Planning Software 392

Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Software Forecasting Software Supply Chain Network Software 392

Logility

JUNE 7, 2023

Top 3 Demand Forecasting Mistakes —How To Avoid Them with Demand planning software Demand forecasting is a critical facet of successful business operations, acting as the helm guiding companies through the rocks hiding beneath the water of market demands. What is Demand Forecasting?

Supply and Demand 130

Supply and Demand Demand Planning Software Forecasting Software Forecasting 130

Logistics Viewpoints

OCTOBER 14, 2024

Solvoyo has a metric they call the user acceptance rate. This metric measures the percentage of time the planners accept replenishment, transportation, or inventory plans as they are without any change in the timing of the delivery or the quantity to be delivered. Forecasting is not an actionable item.” That’s an action.

Supply Chain Planning Software 243

Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Planning Procurement Analytics Scenario Planning 243

Logistics Viewpoints

JULY 10, 2024

A planner could ask the SCP engine to achieve 95% service, with CO2 emissions under a million metric tons at a given factory in the coming month. These forecasts occur in three different time horizons: Long-term planning. Often called strategic planning, this is a forecast spanning 1 – 5 years. Medium-term planning.

Supply Chain Planning Software 271

Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Planning Scenario Planning Modeling 271

Logistics Viewpoints

OCTOBER 4, 2021

A study by E2open – the 2021 Forecasting and Inventory Benchmark Study: Supply Chain Performance During the Covid-19 Pandemic – provides the answers. Benchmarking the forecasting process is difficult. Forecasting Accuracy Was Terrible . No matter what kind of demand planning solution was used, forecasting accuracy dropped.

Inventory Reduction 255

Inventory Reduction Supply Chain Performance Cost Reduction Strategies Supply and Demand 255

Supply Chain Shaman

FEBRUARY 5, 2020

build alignment (driving goal congruence), building reward systems (defining a cross-functional set of metrics to align to the strategy) and defining the right reporting relationships (the S&OP process needs to report to the profit center manager). Most retail forecasts were just not good enough to drive success. The problem?

S&OP 323

S&OP Supply and Demand Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Software 323

Supply Chain Shaman

APRIL 9, 2021

This included one-number forecasting, Integrated Business Planning (with tight integration to the budget), labor arbitrage strategies (chasing low-cost labor with extended supply chains), and tax-efficient supply chain strategies. Focus on functional metrics without alignment to a balanced scorecard to drive value. Mistake #3.

Supply Chain Planning Software 360

Supply Chain Planning Software Procurement Analytics Supply Chain Performance Manufacturing Procurement 360

SYSPRO Smarter ERP

MARCH 15, 2023

Manufactures are continuously faced with the challenge of forecasting how much (raw material) to purchase and how much (finished goods) to produce. To manage this delicate balance of demand and supply, manufacturers often use statistical forecasting techniques to predict future demand by looking at historical sales data.

Forecasting 105

Forecasting Forecasting Software Demand Planning Software Modeling 105

ToolsGroup

AUGUST 20, 2019

Gartner says that the most common outsourced SCP processes are inventory management, statistical forecasting and service parts planning. Companies moving to BPO in these practice areas are experiencing supply chain improvements in metrics such as inventory turnover and customer service. Driven by improvements in performance and cost.

Supply Chain Planning Software 214

Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Planning Gartner Supply Chain Software 214

ToolsGroup

JUNE 8, 2021

For example, an SOP may define how forecasting is done in the organization; therefore, the RFI focuses on features that enable that approach. There may be a better way to approach forecasting, but it’s not captured in the RFI because no one has any experience with it. #6 6 Focus on the wrong metric. 7 Poor use of resources.

Supply Chain Planning Software 245

Supply Chain Planning Software Forecasting Software Supply Chain Software Optimization Software 245

Supply Chain Shaman

FEBRUARY 13, 2020

It is useful to analyze demand data to understand “forecastability” and randomness. Not all data is forecastable, and not all demand optimization engines are equal. The more forecastable the data set, the easier it is to find an optimizer. When I delve into the data, I find: Forecasting Solution Signal Efficacy.

Optimal Sourcing 234

Optimal Sourcing Modeling Forecasting Supply and Demand 234

Logistics Viewpoints

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

For instance, advanced factory scheduling solutions use predictive maintenance inputs, which rely on sensor data to forecast equipment failures. Short-term forecasting relies on POS and other forms of downstream data. Not all the transactional data, just the data required to calculate a metric or make a decision.

Supply Chain Planning Software 255

Supply Chain Planning Software Modeling Software Analytics Software Forecasting Software 255

The Logistics of Logistics

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

During his tenure in the industry, he built innovative pricing and forecasting models, leveraging internal and external data sources to improve internal decision-making and increase profitability. He leads a team of market experts who study every facet of the logistics industry to bring the best available insight to customers.

Optimal Sourcing 205

Optimal Sourcing Freight Analytics Software Forecasting 205

ToolsGroup

JULY 10, 2018

If you’ve been in supply chain for any length time, you might be wondering what caused demand forecasting to develop so many different ‘personalities’ over the years. Demand forecasting, planning, sensing, shaping…what’s going on? Demand Forecasting. Demand forecasting describes the decades-old science of predicting demand.

Supply and Demand 192

Supply and Demand Demand Planning Software Forecasting Forecasting Software 192

Unleashed

MAY 1, 2023

Demand forecasting has gained increasing importance over the last few years. We met with five supply chain experts to discuss how crucial demand forecasting is for mitigating risk, and what businesses can do to improve forecast accuracy. Our experts explain that best-practice demand planning begins with a top-down forecast.

Forecasting 96

Forecasting Supply and Demand Modeling Forecasting Software 96

ToolsGroup

APRIL 25, 2019

Anyone who has done demand planning knows it is extremely complex, with forecasting challenges and rapidly shifting consumer demand, often exacerbated by seasonality, new product introductions, promotions, and myriad causal factors (e.g. The forecast generated by these algorithms degrades as the demand patterns evolve over time.

Supply and Demand 227

Supply and Demand Demand Planning Modeling Supply Chain Planning Software 227

Supply Chain Shaman

AUGUST 12, 2024

Forecastability. Today, due to the increase in the long tail of the supply chain and changing customer dynamics, less than 50% of items are forecastable at an item level. The only products that can be efficiently outsourced with long lead times are in the “forecastable” column. Let me explain. Not so today.

Waste Reduction 195

Waste Reduction Supply Chain Planning Software Supply Chain Design Software Sourcing Strategies 195

Logistics Viewpoints

FEBRUARY 16, 2021

And the linked nature of supply chains mean that collaboration is necessary to ensure that a solution to a problem doesn’t meet the metrics for one link but negatively impact another. For example, it can be more effective to make a series of forecasts, accounting for a range of outcomes from aggressive to conservative.

Supply Chain Visibility 316

Supply Chain Visibility Agile and Lean Supply Chain Supply Chain Planning Software Scenario Planning 316

Logility

JULY 31, 2024

Now, with AI-powered collaboration, the entire business can own and influence the demand forecast in a more comprehensive way leading to reduced risk, increased forecast accuracy, and significant working hours saved. Making this significant change to how you work might seem daunting and difficult to visualize.

Supply and Demand 188

Supply and Demand Forecasting Forecasting Software Supply Chain Planning Software 188

ivalua

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Aside from mitigating risk and saving organizations money, Procurement teams have an opportunity to add value by working closely with suppliers to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring supply chain continuity through diversity and proper forecasting. Tracking the Metrics that Matter. Inflation Metrics. Risk Metrics.

Procurement Analytics 130

Procurement Analytics Metrics Manufacturing Procurement Optimal Sourcing 130

Logistics Viewpoints

JULY 19, 2021

If a change is made to what a customer forecast is expected to buy, for example if the customer appears to want to buy 10 percent more of certain products, the linkage to the effects on what factories can produce and how other customers would be affected are clear. Planners come up with data-proven forecasts on what the market may buy.

Supply Chain Planning Software 278

Supply Chain Planning Software Scenario Planning Supply Chain Planning Negotiating Skills 278

Logility

MARCH 12, 2021

Better forecasting and demand planning processes, which in the past had been beset by low accuracy and poor adoption, were a priority. Forecasting and demand planning can be a challenge because they require a significant amount of quantitative analysis and subjective management judgment. Why are our error metrics (MAPE, MAE, etc.)

Supply and Demand 189

Supply and Demand Prescriptive Analytics Software Demand Planning Modeling 189